Emirates A380 on short finals into YYZ by BriYYZ

When it comes to the UAE-Canada Air Transport Agreement, the UAE have been playing with fire for some time, making bellicose statements threatening to close Camp Mirage. Well, it’s happened. The kill order has come down and Canadian forces are poised to exit the UAE and set up shop elsewhere.

It’s not totally clear how this impasse was reached but indications are that the Canadian side of this mess felt that the UAE’s demands were ludicrous. Some reports have them asking for fifty frequencies a week as well as the right to establish a hub in Toronto. Both of those demands – if they are in fact real – are laughable. Were those demands just a ploy, asking for twice what was hoping to be granted?

The truth of the matter is that with this eviction the positions of either side don’t even matter anymore, this has become a purely political issue, and in politics opinion is everything. While Emirates – who I believe to be the main driver behind all this – have a very well oiled PR and Marketing arm they face a huge challenge in controlling the fallout of this latest incident amongst the Canadian public. While the UAE may view the use of a military base as just a bargaining chip, over here in Toronto the value of the base is tightly associated with the hot-button topic of Canada’s combat role in Afghanistan. A mission that has seen 152 Canadians give their lives in an attempt to quell terror on both a global and regional scale. With that sacrifice in mind it’s not hard to see why Canadians are not looking upon this action favourably.

As if the eviction itself wasn’t enough the UAE then went on to take the extraordinary step of denying Canadian Defence Minister Peter McKay and Chief of Defence Staff General Walt Natynczyk rights to overfly the UAE following the completion of a brief tour to Afghanistan. Incidentally, McKay had transited via Camp Mirage on his way to Afghanistan last week. If you want to know what this has done to Canadian public opinion I suggest you surf over to the Globe and Mail’s coverage of this story. The story was published at 6:15PM and in the four and a half hours since has generated 1174 comments! What’s more is that the majority of responses are staunchly anti-UAE all of a sudden, exhibiting a degree of jingoism that I don’t often see in my compatriots – generally we prefer to blast our own government and airlines. While it’s sad to see things degenerate in this manner I feel that this demonstrates how far offside the UAE has stepped – certainly in the public’s perception. While this is front page political firebrand over here the only mention of this fracas on the Khaleej Times website was a thinly worded piece buried in the depths of the business section, yes the business section. I think this placement clearly illustrates how differently this story has resonated in the two countries.

Canada’s graduated approach to expanding air travel agreements may not have sat well with the UAE from day one but because of their most recent actions, their chances of getting what they want have gone from slim to very slim. What’s worse – for Emirates and Etihad – is that other countries may now show a bit more backbone in negotiations which would certainly make their expansion a little more difficult than they would like. As for rumours and speculation that Canada will terminate (with one year’s notice) the existing bilateral with the UAE and close Canadian airspace to UAE carriers, I don’t think that that’s going to happen because, frankly, the Canadian government has better things to worry about and maintaining the status quo is simpler than taking such an action. Let’s hope for the sake of Emirates and Etihad that I’m right because DXB-IAH/SFO/LAX and AUH-ORD without the benefit of Canadian airspace will not be a simple exercise. They might even need to park a few planes – luckily there’s some ramp space opening up at Camp Mirage.

Great circle paths: AUH-ORD and DXB-IAH/LAX/SFO

Needless to say the existence of many routes operating in and out of Africa are steeped in historical ties – Air France for instance is very strong in West Africa. However, such historical ties are only a small factor in the broader picture. The formation of global airline alliances, armed conflicts, the discovery of natural resources and a host of other factors make the picture far more complex.

If we compare the footprints of the alliances side-by-side we can see that the Star Alliance has the broadest reach. Notice in particular how the major centers that dot the coast of the continent are well served.

Not far behind the Star Alliance is SkyTeam. Air France and KLM’s long history in Africa coupled with Kenya Airways’ growth and success are the major factors behind this second place.

This leaves OneWorld in third but not by much.

Let’s not ignore non-alliance players. The collective presence Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad put forward is no longer negligible. You might argue that the gulf trio only affords three non-stop destinations outside Africa – Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi – but I would argue that one-stops at the right price are just as good or better than direct services.

With Ethiopian set to join the Star Alliance shortly, the list of African carriers ready to be rolled into major alliances drops to zero – either for lack of quality or lack of size. A lack of carriers however does not mean a lack a opportunities. The difference now is that anyone who wants a piece of the action will have to really put some skin in the game, not simply agree to a codeshare. Brussels Airlines is already doing this by setting up an operation in Lubumbashi (to be called Korongo) but they will not be the last. Numerous European and Middle Eastern carriers have half an eye on such joint ventures as do the new darlings of African politicians - the Chinese and the Indians.

While I’m on the subject of tails, if anyone knows what that thing Sri Lankan uses on its tails is I would love to know. At least the old bird was intelligible. That new thing is simply awful. Is it a jalapeno?

Qatar Airways 77L (A7-BBD) at Boeing Field by Andrew W. Sieber

Effective May 30th, 2010 Qatar Airways will begin service to South America offering a daily Doha – São Paulo – Buenos Aires service to be operated with a 77L. They will become only the third airline ever to offer non-stop service to six continents from a single hub. The current members of the Six Continent Club are South African Airways and Emirates who serve six continents from their Johannesburg and Dubai hubs respectively.

Qatar Airways is often accused of aping Emirates. In this instance I think they have one-upped them. Unlike their Gulf cousins QR’s service will continue on to EZE from GRU with full 5th freedom traffic rights. A smart move considering it tests the market for EZE-DOH direct (which the ridiculously capable 77L can handle) and maximizes utilization of the 77L fleet. Indications are that EK did not pursue the GRU-EZE leg as it would have meant a less desirable departure time. This type of paired expansion is not new to QR. When getting their feet wet in Africa they took a similar approach initially serving Cape Town via Johannesburg. After establishing themselves in those markets and proving demand existed both cities were upgraded. A certain Emirati carrier followed suit

This all begs the question, who will be the next member of this elite club? A number of other airlines already serve six continents but from different hubs and with stops. Off the top of my head British Airways, United, Malaysia Airlines and Air France are in the mix but for reasons of equipment, bilateral agreements and other complications I don’t believe any of these four will be the next. My pick is Etihad. The reasons are simple. They have a similar business model to EK and QR, they have capable aircraft on order and they have a strong desire to not be an also-ran in the arena of Gulf aviation. Time will tell.