Qantas abandons San Fransisco in favor of Dallas

The interesting wrinkle in this new route is that while the outbound leg (QF7) will operate SYD-DFW the return leg (QF8) will operate DFW-BNE-SYD due to range restrictions caused by prevailing winds over the pacific. The stop in Brisbane may become a problem. For example, for a passenger flying from Miami to Sydney the thought of MIA-DFW-BNE-SYD seems far less palatable than MIA-LAX-SYD. Though Qantas are taking steps to improve the customs and immigration process for stopover passengers in Brisbane I feel that the perception problem is one that may not be easy to overcome. To their credit Qantas do see this is a problem – if not necessarily the size of the problem – and have indicated that when the 787 enters its ranks it will take DFW-SYD direct in both directions. The only issue with that resolution is that there is still very little clarity into when the 787 will actually enter service and how it will perform. Hopefully the US$3.1 million in rebates from Dallas-Fort Worth airport to Qantas will be enough to keep things ticking along until Boeing gets the 787 rolling in earnest.

Emirates A380 coming into YYZ by BriYYZ on Flickr

Let’s be honest 58 A380s was never going to be enough for Dubai’s ambitions. In case you think I’m being sarcastic, I’m not. Once you get over the shock of such a massive order and start to think about it, 58 is not that many. Currently the ten strong A380 fleet serves London (LHR x2 daily), Paris (CDG), Bangkok, Toronto (x3 weekly), Sydney, Auckland (via SYD), Incheon as well as doing some intra-gulf flying mainly to Jeddah. Assuming that the current complement is well utilized that would leave (only!) 48 frames. Placing these 48 across EK’s currently served destinations will not be that difficult. Many of these destinations already enjoy multiple daily frequencies from DXB. Examining that list would be a good starting point.

Cape Town, Dhaka, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Gatwick, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Karachi, Kuala Lumpur, Male, Manchester, Manila, Mauritius, Melbourne, Moscow, Singapore and Shanghai are all strong candidates to become A380 destinations. Whether all of these spots are A380-ready and whether the authorities/treaties that govern these airports will just take this lying down remains to be seen but EK’s intentions should be clear. At this point it’s just a case of guessing in what order these will come online. Add the additional 32 frames into the mix and only then will you start to struggle to find routes for EK to put them on, but even then not really. At the current dismal delivery rate natural fleet renewal will mean that older 77W frames will be finding new homes and being replaced by A380s.

Beyond the additional 32 A380s the rumored/sort-of-announced intention to order more frames at Farnborough makes things interesting. In all likelihood it will be a modest (by EK standards) 777 renewal order (yes even they acknowledge not every city on earth can support a daily A380) and/or an additional 10 A380s to bring the fleet count there to 100. Say what you will about EK they understand PR!

This “better to have it and not need it” philosophy will work for EK. After all any spares can find homes with EK’s cousin organization DAE and even Senegal Airlines (aka Sri Lankan: the sequel) could probably take one or two for flights to Paris and Marseille in a pinch. Perhaps most importantly by jamming up the order books at Toulouse. EK’s competitors will not be able to get a meaningful A380 fleet put together any time soon.

To me EK’s biggest problem is not going to be finding places to fly the A380, it’s going to be getting foreign governments to yield to their will. I have no doubt that some governments will force addendums to existing bilaterals – replacing frequencies with seat capacities – or at the very least refuse to change existing agreements. If that happens things will get very messy indeed. The UAE-India bilateral is already restricted in this way but more countries will follow suit. Already in battles of attrition with Australia, Canada, Germany and India, Emirates might have to hire as many PR and lobbyist hands as they do pilots to get all those A380s in the air.