The ????ian Gulf
Iran has issued a warning to foreign airlines that they will be banned from flying into its airspace, unless they use the term “Persian Gulf” (rather than Arabian Gulf) on their in-flight monitors. Whether this demand is system-wide or limited to flights that use Iranian airspace is not abundantly clear. The Iranian transport minister, Hamid Behbahani, has given carriers 15 days to enforce this change.
The chances are that non-state owned airlines from Europe and Asia (outside of the Middle East) will capitulate and make the change. From their perspective it’s a semantic difference so profit should trump politics. It’s the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) governments – and the carriers they control – that have the potential to turn this rift into a full blown chasm. If the GCC powers elect to respond in kind with a similar demand it would force carriers to adopt a hot-swappable system to alter on board displays and flight plans depending on the destination of each flight. This is not a simple exercise, but it is achievable.
In reality, this fracas is between the Iranian government and the governments of the GCC – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Unfortunately for Iran the GCC holds most of the chips and all of the aces; Iran is very dependent on the UAE – more specifically Dubai – which it uses as a neutral middle ground for conducting banking and trade transactions without violating international sanctions. To push the Emiratis too far would be unwise as there is the very real possibility that these practices could be stopped overnight. While this would be a serious and costly blow, the Iranians would likely be able to stomach the loss and find another willing intermediary – Lebanon perhaps. That leaves the biggest ace of all. Religion. Over 98% of Iran’s population is Muslim so the demand for direct air travel to and from Mecca for Hajj and Umrah is very strong. If the Saudis were to revoke the landing rights of Iranian carriers that would cause serious turmoil in Iran – the type of turmoil that would cost Behbahani his job and give Iran a black eye that it really cannot afford.
